Billions of meals worldwide are at risk of being lost weekly due to the disruption of fertilizer supplies caused by the conflict in Iran, warns the chief executive of a leading global fertilizer producer. Svein Tore Holsether of Yara International stated that hostilities in the Gulf, which have impacted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, are jeopardizing global food production and could lead to a bidding war for food, disproportionately affecting the world’s poorest nations.
Context of Global Fertilizer Dependence
Fertilizers are crucial for modern agriculture, providing essential nutrients like nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium that significantly boost crop yields. A substantial portion of global fertilizer trade, estimated by the United Nations to be around one-third of all fertilizers, normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint in international shipping.
The ongoing conflict in the region has led to significant disruptions in the production and transit of these essential agricultural inputs. Yara International estimates that nearly half a million tons of nitrogen fertilizer are currently not being produced globally due to the prevailing situation.
Impact on Crop Yields and Food Production
The absence of nitrogen fertilizer can drastically reduce crop yields, with Holsether warning that some crops could see yields fall by as much as 50% in the first season if fertilizer is not applied. This reduced output translates directly into fewer meals available globally.
Holsether estimates that the lack of fertilizer could result in up to 10 billion fewer meals being produced each week. This shortfall poses a severe threat to global food security, particularly in regions already struggling with hunger and malnutrition.
Rising Costs and Farmer Squeeze
Farmers worldwide are facing a daunting combination of increased costs. Beyond the soaring price of fertilizers, which have reportedly surged by 80% since the start of the conflict, farmers are also contending with higher energy prices, increased diesel costs for machinery, and rising prices for other agricultural inputs.
However, the prices farmers can command for their produce have not yet kept pace with these escalating expenses. This squeeze on profit margins makes it more challenging for farmers to invest in the necessary inputs, including fertilizers, to maintain optimal production levels.
The Threat of a Global Food Bidding War
The potential for a global food bidding war is a significant concern. Holsether cautioned that if richer nations engage in such competition for food supplies, it will inevitably drive up prices, making food unaffordable for the most vulnerable populations in developing countries.
This scenario has profound implications for food affordability, food scarcity, and hunger on a global scale. The United Nations World Food Programme estimates that the combined fallout from the Middle East conflict could push an additional 45 million people into acute hunger by 2026.
Regional Food Insecurity and Inflation
The impact is expected to be particularly severe in Asia and the Pacific, where food insecurity is projected to rise by 24%, representing the largest relative increase among all regions. In the UK, while widespread food shortages are considered unlikely, consumers are expected to feel the pinch through increased food bills in the coming months.
The Food and Drink Federation has forecast that food inflation in the UK could reach 10% by December. The Bank of England has also revised its inflation forecasts, anticipating food price inflation to rise to 4.6% in September and potentially higher later in the year.
Looking Ahead: What to Watch Next
The coming months will be critical in observing how global supply chains adapt to these disruptions and whether diplomatic efforts can de-escalate the conflict and secure vital shipping routes. Attention will also be on government policies aimed at supporting vulnerable populations and mitigating the impact of rising food prices. The ability of farmers to access affordable fertilizers and other inputs will be a key determinant of future food availability and prices worldwide.
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