Accra, Ghana – May 22, 2026 – The cost of borrowing in Ghana is poised for a slight increase in the coming weeks, even as the central bank maintains its policy rate at 14%. John Awuah, Chief Executive of the Ghana Association of Banks, indicated that external factors influencing the Ghana Reference Rate (GRR), such as marginal rises in treasury bill rates, are driving this projected trend.
Understanding the Ghana Reference Rate
The Ghana Reference Rate serves as a benchmark for determining lending rates across commercial banks. Its calculation is influenced by several key variables, not just the central bank’s policy rate. Mr. Awuah emphasized that focusing solely on the policy rate provides an incomplete picture of the factors affecting borrowing costs.
The GRR for May 2026 saw a minor dip to 10.03%, down from 10.06% in April. This marginal decrease was primarily attributed to a slight fall in the interbank lending rate, which closed April at 10.30%. However, treasury bill rates showed a slight upward movement, increasing from 4.81% to 4.92% over the same period.
Addressing Criticisms on Rate Transmission
Recent criticisms from businesses and analysts have pointed to a perceived slowness in commercial banks’ response to policy rate adjustments. They argue that loan rates do not always decrease promptly when the central bank cuts its policy rate.
Mr. Awuah countered these assertions on the PM EXPRESS Business Edition program, stating that available data does not substantiate claims of banks failing to respond to policy rate changes. He argued that the complex interplay of factors influencing the GRR means that direct, immediate correlation is not always evident.
Single-Digit Rates Exist for Some Borrowers
Despite the general discussion around interest rate trends, Mr. Awuah highlighted that some businesses and individuals are already benefiting from single-digit interest rates. This is often a result of strong credit histories and banks’ responsiveness to evolving market conditions.
He explained that many banks maintain a degree of confidentiality regarding specific customer loan offers. However, he noted that personal loan offers with rates as low as 9% have been observed, demonstrating that favorable terms are accessible to creditworthy clients.
Implications for Borrowers and the Economy
The projected marginal increase in borrowing costs, even with a stable policy rate, suggests that businesses and individuals seeking loans may face slightly higher repayment obligations soon. This could impact investment decisions and consumer spending.
For businesses, especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that rely on credit, this could mean increased operational costs. The slight uptick might also influence the feasibility of new projects or expansions.
Consumers looking to take out loans for mortgages, vehicle financing, or personal needs may also see a modest rise in their interest expenses. This underscores the importance of comparing offers from different financial institutions and understanding the factors that influence loan pricing.
What to Watch Next
Market observers will be closely monitoring the Ghana Reference Rate in the coming months to see if the upward pressure on treasury bill rates continues. The responsiveness of commercial banks to any further policy rate adjustments by the Bank of Ghana will also be a key indicator.
Furthermore, the extent to which single-digit lending rates remain accessible to a broader segment of the business community will be crucial for economic growth. The interplay between the policy rate, the GRR, and actual lending rates will shape the borrowing landscape in Ghana throughout the remainder of 2026.
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