Accra, Ghana – May 19, 2026 – Dr. Adu Owusu Sarkodie, Executive Director of the Centre for Policy Scrutiny (CPS), has cautioned that Ghana faces a significant risk of returning to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for another bailout within a few years if it fails to uphold fiscal discipline and implement robust structural economic reforms following the conclusion of its current programme.
Sustaining Discipline Post-IMF
The warning comes as Ghana transitions from its recent IMF-supported Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme, a period where historical patterns suggest a lapse in economic management. Dr. Sarkodie highlighted in a media interview on Tuesday that Ghana’s recurring issue of overspending and inadequate expenditure controls after IMF programmes undermines its economic progress and international credibility.
While acknowledging the substantial gains made in stabilizing the economy under the ECF, Dr. Sarkodie emphasized that Ghana remains vulnerable. The country has a documented struggle to maintain economic discipline once direct IMF oversight is reduced.
“Historically, we have not been able to maintain the discipline. That is why we keep going to the IMF, then we come back, we misbehave, then we go to them again,” he stated, underscoring a cyclical pattern of economic behavior.
Historical Dependency on IMF
Dr. Sarkodie presented his own statistical analysis, revealing a troubling trend: Ghana has, on average, returned to the IMF for assistance every four years since gaining independence. This recurring reliance is particularly concerning given the nation’s considerable natural resources and economic potential.
“The last IMF programme ended in 2019, and by 2023, we were back again. That tells you there is still doubt about our ability to sustain fiscal discipline on our own,” he stressed.
The Role of the Policy Coordination Instrument
His remarks coincide with the government’s announcement of the successful completion of the IMF bailout and the initiation of the IMF’s Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI). Unlike the ECF, the PCI is a non-financial arrangement focused on providing technical guidance and policy coordination, aiming to bolster investor confidence rather than offering direct financial aid.
Dr. Sarkodie explained that the PCI is a necessary measure because international investors still harbor uncertainties about Ghana’s commitment to prudent economic management. “The IMF Executive Director himself said there is doubt among investors that Ghana may not be able to keep the discipline. That is one of the reasons the PCI is still needed to keep us in check,” he elaborated.
This arrangement is intended to help Ghana regain access to international credit markets and restore investor confidence, particularly after the country was largely excluded from the Eurobond market during the peak of its economic crisis in 2022.
Macroeconomic Stability vs. Household Realities
Despite the celebrated macroeconomic stability, Dr. Sarkodie pointed out that these gains have not yet significantly improved the daily lives of ordinary Ghanaians. He noted that while inflation has decreased and the national currency has strengthened against major foreign currencies, many households continue to grapple with high prices and diminished purchasing power.
“The IMF focuses on the macroeconomy. Inflation, debt, reserves and exchange rates but the ordinary Ghanaian is thinking about pocket economics,” he observed. He used an analogy to explain the impact of inflation: “Inflation is like a thief. In the past, the thief was stealing 100 cedis from you. Now the thief is stealing 20 cedis. The hardship has reduced, but the thief is still stealing.”
Economic Fragility and External Shocks
The CPS Director further cautioned that Ghana’s economy, despite showing signs of recovery, remains fragile and highly susceptible to external shocks. Recent price hikes in fuel and tomatoes, attributed to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and supply chain disruptions from Burkina Faso, illustrate this vulnerability.
“We have recovered from the symptoms of the crisis, but we have not built a resilient economy yet. The economy can walk small, small, but it cannot run,” he remarked.
Path Forward
Dr. Sarkodie urged the government to implement sustained measures to consolidate economic gains and prevent a relapse into dependency on the Bretton Woods Institution. The effectiveness of the PCI and the government’s commitment to long-term fiscal discipline will be critical in determining Ghana’s economic trajectory in the coming years.
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